Notes

The press and the public are getting prediction markets badly wrong. The margin is the problem, sports pay the bills, most people don't want to trade, and paying market makers or brokers to show up never lasts. Ten truths from someone who's been doing this since before it was cool.

Three days at Semafor World Economy 2026 in Washington, DC last week. I spoke on one panel, but mostly I was there to listen. Three people I watched from the audience I'm still thinking about: Gianni Infantino on FIFA's dynamic ticket pricing, John Kerry in a business register rather than a political one, and Steve Bannon in full conviction.

Last week I sat on a panel called "The Next Era of Innovation" at Semafor World Economy 2026 in Washington, DC. A few things I said that I want to write down: on whether prediction markets are gambling, on mention contracts, on where the business actually is, and on prediction markets as news infrastructure.