Jason Trost

The Long Game

In 2008, I quit UBS to build a better prediction market. Everyone said the incumbent was unbeatable.

Took 7 years before we turned the corner. Required what I call "extreme hubris with extreme work ethic."

Today, Smarkets is one of the world's largest prediction markets. We've survived three hype cycles. This one feels different. Maybe.

The current prediction market boom is real but most of these companies will fail. I've gotten a lot wrong over 18 years - that's mostly what I write about.

Current Focus

• Running Smarkets (still the day job)
• Getting Smarkets into the US
• Writing about what actually works in prediction markets