The prediction market veteran you've probably never heard of.
Jason Trost is the founder and CEO of Smarkets, one of the world's largest prediction markets. Smarkets is a trader-driven prediction market platform where participants can buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of real-world events—from elections and sports to entertainment and current affairs. Founded in 2008 when he left UBS to challenge the industry monopoly, Smarkets now processes billions in annual volume across 200,000+ customers. A Computer Science graduate from Northwestern University (2003), Trost has spent 18 years building prediction market infrastructure—longer than almost anyone in the space. He's based in London and with one foot in the US.
Everyone thinks prediction markets just became a thing. Most of today's players launched in 2020 or later. The media discovered them in 2024. I've been watching hype cycles come and go since 2008, learning what actually works.
I founded Smarkets at 26 after quitting my software developer job at UBS. Armed with a Computer Science degree from Northwestern (2003) and experience in financial markets, the idea was simple: the incumbent was charging 5% commission and had terrible UX. We could do 2% with better design. Everyone said we were crazy to challenge a monopoly. They were probably right.
The first seven years nearly killed us. We burned through millions, rebuilt the platform three times, and came close to shutting down more than once. What kept us going was what I call "extreme hubris with extreme work ethic"—the dangerous combination of believing you're right when everyone says you're wrong, and working obsessively to prove it.
In 2015, things clicked. We'd figured out the hardest problem in prediction markets: liquidity. Not by hoping users would provide it (they won't), but by running our own trading desk to seed markets. Today, Smarkets processes billions in volume annually across sports, politics, and entertainment markets.
I've watched this space long enough to see patterns. The current boom feels different—real money, real regulation, real institutional interest. But I've also seen enough cycles to stay cautiously optimistic. Prediction markets are hard. Most will fail. The winners will be those who understand that market design beats marketing and liquidity beats everything.
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Based in London. Office in Los Angeles. Will travel for the right opportunity.