Jason Trost - Notes Shorter pieces on prediction markets, talks, and things seen up close. https://jasontrost.com/notes/ en-us Tue, 06 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT Tue, 06 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT 10 Truths About Prediction Markets From 15 Years of Running One The press and the public are getting prediction markets badly wrong. Ten truths from someone who's been running one since before it was cool. https://jasontrost.com/notes/10-truths-about-prediction-markets.html https://jasontrost.com/notes/10-truths-about-prediction-markets.html Tue, 06 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT jason+ws@smarkets.com (Jason Trost) I've been running a prediction market in Europe for 15 years. The press and the public are getting prediction markets badly wrong. So here are 10 truths from someone who's been doing this since before it was cool.

The margin is the problem. Sports pay the bills. Most people don't want to trade. Fees will trend toward exchange levels. Paying market makers or brokers to show up never lasts. Liquidity pools to a few winners. A price is a probability, not a prediction. The venue is responsible for the market. Taste matters. And institutions will stay small.

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]]> Notes from the Audience at Semafor World Economy 2026 Three people I watched from the audience at Semafor World Economy 2026: Gianni Infantino, John Kerry, and Steve Bannon. https://jasontrost.com/notes/semafor-world-economy-2026-audience.html https://jasontrost.com/notes/semafor-world-economy-2026-audience.html Wed, 22 Apr 2026 14:00:00 GMT jason+ws@smarkets.com (Jason Trost) Three days at Semafor World Economy 2026 in Washington, DC last week. I spoke on one panel; mostly I was there to listen.

Three people I watched from the audience I'm still thinking about: Gianni Infantino on FIFA's dynamic ticket pricing, John Kerry in a business register rather than a political one, and Steve Bannon in full conviction.

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]]> Notes from Semafor World Economy 2026 Notes from my panel at Semafor World Economy 2026 on prediction markets, mention contracts, and why the industry needs an adult in the room. https://jasontrost.com/notes/semafor-world-economy-2026.html https://jasontrost.com/notes/semafor-world-economy-2026.html Tue, 21 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT jason+ws@smarkets.com (Jason Trost) Last week I sat on a panel called "The Next Era of Innovation" at Semafor World Economy 2026 in Washington, DC. Yinka Adegoke interviewed me about Smarkets and prediction markets.

A few things I said that I want to write down: on whether prediction markets are gambling, on sensitive mention contracts, on where the business actually is, and on prediction markets as news infrastructure.

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