Jason Trost

The Long Game

In 2008, I quit UBS to build a better prediction market. Everyone said the incumbent was unbeatable.

Took 7 years before we turned the corner. Required what I call "extreme hubris with extreme work ethic."

Today: Smarkets processes billions in annual volume. 1,000,000+ funded accounts. One of Europe's fastest-growing companies.

We have survived three prediction market hype cycles. This one feels different. Maybe.

I have learned many lessons from 18 years of building from failure and success:

• Market design matters more than marketing
• Liquidity is everything (we run our own trading desk to market make it)
• 2% commission beats 5% (we proved it against the incumbents)
• Politics makes headlines. Sports makes money.
• The US strategy? With hindsight, I screwed it up. Learning.

The current prediction market boom makes me both excited and nervous. We've been here before.

Current Focus

• Running Smarkets (still the day job)
• Watching the fintech landscape with interest
• Thinking about what trading will become in 10 years
• Living in London. Building across US/UK.

Writing about prediction market mechanics, market design, liquidity, what we got wrong, what we got right, and what actually matters after 18 years.