About Jason Trost
18 years of prediction markets. Still at it.
Short Bio (For Press)
Jason Trost is the founder and CEO of Smarkets, one of the world's largest prediction markets. Smarkets is a trader-driven prediction market platform where participants can buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of real-world events—from elections and sports to entertainment and current affairs. Founded in 2008 when he left UBS to challenge the industry monopoly, Smarkets now processes billions in annual volume across 1,000,000+ funded accounts. A Computer Science graduate from Northwestern University (2003), Trost has been building prediction market infrastructure since 2008. He's based in London with one foot in the US.
The Full Story
Everyone thinks prediction markets just became a thing. Most of today's players launched in 2020 or later. The media discovered them in 2024. I've been watching hype cycles come and go since 2008, learning what actually works.
I founded Smarkets at 26 after quitting my software developer job at UBS. Armed with a Computer Science degree from Northwestern (2003) and experience in financial markets, the idea was simple: the incumbent was charging 5% commission and had terrible UX. We could do 2% with better design. Everyone said we were crazy to challenge a monopoly. They were probably right.
The first seven years nearly killed us. We burned through millions, rebuilt the platform three times, and came close to shutting down more than once. What kept us going was extreme hubris and extreme work ethic. Everyone said we were wrong and we just kept going.
In 2015, things clicked. We'd figured out the hardest problem in prediction markets: liquidity. Not by hoping users would provide it (they won't), but by running our own trading desk to seed markets.
I've watched this space long enough to see patterns. The current boom feels different—real money, real regulation, real institutional interest. But I've also seen enough cycles to stay cautiously optimistic. Prediction markets are hard. Most will fail. Market design beats marketing. Liquidity beats everything. Most people learn this too late.
The Journey
Hard-Won Lessons
- Liquidity is everything. Without it, you're just a website with good intentions.
- Market makers > market takers. We run our own trading desk because users won't provide liquidity.
- 2% beats 5%. Lower commissions drive volume. We proved this against the incumbents.
- Politics gets press, sports makes money. One is marketing, the other is business.
- Regulation is a moat, not a barrier. Getting licensed filters out the tourists.
- The US is different. What works in Europe doesn't translate. I learned this the hard way.
- Prediction markets ≠ betting. Similar mechanics, completely different user psychology.
- Everyone's an expert in a bull market. The real test is surviving the winters.
Speaking Topics
I speak about prediction market design, liquidity, competing with incumbents, and what it's like to build through multiple hype cycles. Happy to do keynotes, panels, or podcasts.
Current Focus
- Smarkets: Still CEOing, still building. 100+ team across London, the US and Europe.
- Writing: Documenting lessons about market design, liquidity, and what actually works.
- Advising: Helping the next generation avoid the mistakes I made (there were many).
Media & Resources
See selected media appearances for recent coverage and interviews.
For headshots, company logos, or detailed fact sheets, please contact: [email protected]
Happy to provide background or on-record commentary on prediction markets, market design, liquidity provision, or the broader betting/gambling industry.
For speaking, media, or advisory inquiries:
Happy to do keynotes, panels, or podcasts.
Based in London. Will travel.